Many people are more comfortable with ideas than they are with data. That's too bad because without good data it's hard to get the funding you'll need to implement your good ideas. The business world is driven by facts, sales projections and generating a return on the investment.

Granted many of the projections are nothing more than educated guesses tied up in your ability to sell and gain a consensus. That doesn't make them useless or wrong, it just makes them, as stated, a guess.

As a creative type person, as a marketer, I had to acquire my taste for numbers. What I found was that the "what-if" scenarios appealed to my imagination. Where as a numbers geek would embroil themselves in the data looking for the one, single, truth, I knew no such single truth existed but found joy in exploring what was possible.

I knew that we could make a reasonable projection based on a certain set of variables and that work would exhaust our capabilities. Working beyond that point is wasted energy but, at times, the politically-wise thing to do.

Ours was a search for excellence, not truth. If you don't believe me review your last ten-years January sales projections. More than likely you'll find half of them are significantly wrong, missed guesses.

If you struggle with data, with facts, then try framing the process in terms your imagination can embrace. Try searching for "possible outcomes" instead of "the number."

Thought of and shared the right way numbers can be fun. If you don't believe me then watch Hans Rosling's amazing presentation about myths and predispositions surrounding the third world.


Steve

In my May 5 blog I summarized the Chief Marketing Officer Council’s 2009 Outlook Report on marketing investments for the coming year.

In the table below, the shift from offline to online investments was quantified from an agency perspective. Here are the highlights from my perspective:

• 87.5% of traditional ad agencies expect to increase digital investments, 10.4% by more than 30%. We are witnessing a huge shift in marketing investments and action is required.
• Similarly, about 15% of digital agencies and digital vendor/service providers are increasing their digital marketing investment by more than 30%. That’s not unexpected since they’re in the digital business.
• Corporate Brands are making the least significant shifts in investment. That probably reflects more on their (conservative) decision-making processes than on their lack of awareness. The reason for the lag doesn’t really matter; this is a red flag.
• Lumping investment increases into one “1%-29%” category is a mistake. The category is just too broad. It undermines the survey’s credibility. Dividing those numbers into two categories (1%-14% and 15%-29%, respectively) would have provided more insight and made the findings more useful as both a benchmarking and a forecasting tool.

No baseline data was provided but they did publish a visual representation illustrating the respondent’s strong belief, which averaged about 60%, that due to current economic conditions digital marketing investments will continue to grow as a percent of overall marketing investments.
 

As documented here on several occasions, the shift to digital is accelerating. 70% of product and service searches begin online and that shift is not only justified, it’s required.

Companies that are shifting their marketing investments online get it. Those that are not shifting investments are flawed. They are flawed because they are (1) not listening to their customers, to reality, and, (2) are incapable of change, of adjusting to that reality. Both flaws are fatal and immediate action is required.

Specifically, if you are incapable of listening and incapable of changing, please resign immediately because you are no longer serving the needs of the marketplace or the needs of your employees, most whom rely on their jobs to feed their families.

Steve