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Aligned Marketing Blog

Defining the End

Doug Schust - Wednesday, February 24, 2010
How will you know the recession is over? What is your definition of recovery? Is it financial: Two consecutive quarters of growth or a month or two of sales that are equal to 2008 (pre-recession) levels? Are you even listening for signals that the worst has passed?

I don't know what your definition is but I do think it's a good idea to have one. Why? Because once you declare the recession over it changes the way you manage your business. That may not make sense at first blush but I declared the recession over last week (more on that in a moment) and it's has changed my thinking in one very important way: I am more willing to spend money, to invest in my future.

Here's a quick recap of the events that led me to a post-recession mindset.

First, I started getting calls from recruiters again. I was getting very few calls between January 2009 and January 2010.  I've been in this business a long time so that's a very low numbers and, frankly, a few of them were just people complaining about the lack of activity, "No one is hiring..." The emails and calls from friends and industry contacts was about 3-to-1 from people losing their jobs as compared to people landing new jobs. And most of the calls from people who landed new jobs came in just the last 3-4 months.

Second, during the same time period generating sales leads for Aligned Marketing was difficult. I might make 20-30 calls and send out an equal number of emails before anything "hot" surfaced. In the last two weeks we've received 10 new leads from companies ranging in size from $100M to several billion in sales needing help. Companies are not only looking to reposition their brand, revamp websites, and build online catalogs for commerce, they are in a hurry to get started.

The final domino fell last weekend. My wife and I were celebrating our 30th wedding anniversary in downtown Charlotte and decided to have dinner at The Capital Grill. In case you're not familiar with The Capital Grill there are several around the country and they're comparable to Morton's, Sullivan's and Ruth Chris' steakhouses, they are upscale, at least $100 per person. During cocktails the bartender said, "It's like someone opened a floodgate after the first week of February..." Their lunch-crowds since then have been larger than they've seen in over a year and, sure enough, when we exited the dining room after dinner, the bar and lounge area was elbow-to-elbow with people. We had to fight our way out the place. Since then I've asked two other local restaurateurs and they say the same thing, "business has really picked up..."

My tiny slice of the world is sending me buy-signals and they're exciting to hear. What is your world telling you or, more importantly, are you even listening?

Steve
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2010 in Three Words

Doug Schust - Wednesday, December 30, 2009
 

Wrapping up 2009 has been an interesting process. In order to determine where I want to go I thought it wise to see where I've been. To keep things simple I'm going to use three individual words to describe where I've been in 2009 and three different words to describe my focus for 2010. Each of these words has numeric measurements behind them but that information is too details and private for this venue. The purpose of this blog is to share an approach, the three word approach, that I picked up from Chris Brogan and modified to my liking.

I think using three words to describe the areas I'm going to focus on will work better for me than my traditional approach of having several project plans. Project plans are fine, I've used them successfully in the past, but they take a lot of time to develop and manage so I'm going back to broad goals with quantifiable objectives and estimated timelines behind them. A less maniacal approach to help me combat my compulsive tendencies. LOL.

2009:
Education: Much of 2009 was a learning experience. On the business front I learned (in Q4) to balance time between promoting my business and actually doing client work. That was a biggee. I also expanded my knowledge on search engine optimization and social networking tremendously, did my first real interview and, just for fun, taught myself a little HTML programming. The purpose of education is action and the results is growth. I love both. How many of us get to learn new skills and plant new seeds after the age of 45, much less 55. By that time most people are harvesting old skills and old crops. That's crazy. All the fun is at the beginning of the learning curve. By the way, at the end of Summer I was playing the best golf of my life. I finally learned to chip!

God: I'm not going to get religious or too spiritual here but can tell you from experience that being an entrepreneur is not for anyone with a weak heart. You are making significant bets daily with limited information, your income takes wild swings and the whole health insurance deal is a friggin' nightmare. You are learning by doing constantly so you need faith in yourself and a lot of Faith, period. The funny part is several of my executive friends thought I was taking a huge risk by starting a full-time business at the dawn of this brutal recession. I understood their thinking but knew the carnage was just beginning and had more confidence in myself than any new employer.

Inertia: As I talk to more and more companies it amazes me how many are unwilling to change or even recognize the degree of change around them in the marketing arena. Gang, it's all about the net. If your marketing isn't slanted 60%+/- toward online activities and accelerating then you're being left behind. If you're still killing trees and relying on expensive one-to-one selling well, ok, but that should be a smaller and smaller portion of your budget going forward. I could write pages about this subject, and often have, so I'll leave it there...No I won't. If your waiting to see the changes clearly then you'll be looking in your review mirror - you're waiting too long.

2010:
Value: Through my client services, blogs and other activities I will add more value to my clients and my respective networks; several thousand read my blogs every month now, which is stunning. 2010 will be the year of giving more value because I enjoy helping others and, frankly, it's good business. I expect to get more as a result. I'm not looking for a one-to-one, give-to-get, relationship. I know I may have to give ten units of blood to get one back. That's ok. In 2010 I will focus more on audience needs, take more ownership for my clients' success, write more, and expand my web presence. I'm launching a new, separate, website in January.

Structure: I need to be more productive and that means more organized and structured. For example: After compiling my three main contact lists I 993 contacts complete with email addresses and phone numbers. That does not include my 2,000 Followers on Twitter, my 600 "Friends" on Facebook or those I've connected with on other social media. By the time 2010 arrives I'll have those lists organized into A-B-C classifications and an action plan with each group as well as a plan for growing my list. It's too easy for "A's" to get treated like "C's" and be relegated to Christmas only communication and C's to get lost altogether.

Courage: The race is not always won by the fastest, sometimes it is won by the most aggressive. Courage isn't always an easy choice but it's a Darwinian world and I intend to survive. In the end, I decided long ago to live my life pursuing my aspirations and not reacting to my fears. Too many do the latter. Merging into the crowd is easy. I get it. It's just not me. So I've decided 2010 will be not only about adding value and more structure, it's going to be a year of bigger bets and more excitement. I can hardly wait!

Steve

You Can’t Stand Over the Ball Forever

Doug Schust - Monday, December 14, 2009
Golf is my favorite game. You learn a lot about yourself and your friends on the course. There are a few life-lessons to be had as well. One of my favorites is, “You have to play the ball where it lies.”

Right now our economy is in the rough. That’s the bad news. The good news is there’s more golf to play and you have a business to run.

The recession has no doubt taught you a lot about your core competencies, operational inefficiencies, customer relationships and people. You probably have more control over your budgets, cash flow, pricing and product portfolio as well. Those are all positives. What now?

Recessions end and, while we’re not out of the woods yet, there are several indicators pointing to a brighter future. However minor, most businesses are shifting from cost cutting to planning and investment decisions. How are you approaching your marketing investments? How aggressive should your next shot be?

Looking back may help us look forward. Every company adjusts expenses to revenues but successful companies never stop investing in critical competencies, be they product development, infrastructure or general marketing, most of which is digital now.

The recession of 2001, which was brought on by 9/11, was studied by Bain & Company. They evaluated 2500+ companies and concluded:
About 24 percent more firms moved from the back of the pack to the front in the 2001 recession compared with the subsequent period of economic calm (in terms of) net profit margins and sales growth.

Southwest Airlines is a good example. With a strong balance sheet and some cost advantages, Southwest grew sales and market share, while the other airlines, their larger competitors, cut personnel and capacity, Southwest grew and took share by increasing their marketing investments, lowering fares and retaining all their employees, a move that kept their labor force motivated and and loyal for years.

The results were astounding. Southwest increased its fleet 51 percent in the following six years and is still the only airline to be profitable since its inception. Wal-Mart offers another example of investing during a recession. They used the 2001 recession to launch their “Everyday Day Low Prices” slogan. It proved was such as success that they’re doing something similar today, you could say it's their recession-based marketing strategy. 

This time Wal-Mart is using the current downturn, as well as the demise of Circuit City, to enter consumer electronics and, potentially, challenge Best Buy. In addition, they are remodeling their stores to make them more open and consumer-friendly, more like Target’s. These are big investments. Does Wal-Mart know something most companies don’t? Does their success allow them to do what others can’t? Or are they successful because they had the knowledge and courage to act on their goals and aspirations while their competitors responded to their fears?

On Wednesday's post, The Shot, we’ll discuss tactics.

Steve

 

ExecuNet article: Recession...Rebuild, Recover, Reinvent

Doug Schust - Tuesday, July 21, 2009
When I first read Marji McClure's insightful article I decided to save it as fodder for a future blog. So, as I always do, I slipped into my "Blog Ideas" folder and forgot about it, or so I thought.

Last weekend, after the third time through it, I decided to pass on the original. It's that good.

Enjoy:
Using Recession as an Opportunity to Rebuild, Recover, Reinvent by Marji McClure, ExecuNet Contributing Editor

Steve

How to market during a recession?

Doug Schust - Friday, April 03, 2009
A graduate student contacted me looking for articles and insights into recession marketing. There’s no single answer to that question. David Jones, global CEO, Euro RSCG, said in Advertising Age, February 16, 2009, said it well:

“The reality today is that we are all driving in fog [great line], and no one really knows if the fog will lift in one year, two years or more.”

That said, the data is clear: eMarketer's latest surveys show a significant drop in spending for media and advertising and a survey from the Association of National Advertisers (ANA) indicates that 77% of US advertisers are cutting their media spending this year. Expenditures for search engine optimization (SEO), social media, mobile and lead generation are the exceptions, spending in these categories are up, which is more evidence that engagement marketing is replacing interruption marketing.

Back to the question, depending on your brand and value proposition, assuming you have one, there are multiple marketing paths available.

One path is WalMart's: They know their brand, listen to their audience and create messages to address (market to) their audience's needs. WalMart fills the "affordability" need and that is a compelling value proposition during a recession. In WalMart’s most recent ads they’ve focused on women’s cosmetics, which to many is both a large and, as it relates to price-point, discretionary expense.

A high-end or luxury brands need another path since they need to be more careful promoting "affordability," even in a recession, lest they undermine the prestige aspect of their brand permanently.

Nordstrom's has to be careful marketing affordability since they tend to serve more affluent clientele than WalMart. The reason is once the recession is over they may never get the prestige attribute of their brand back. They must work to keep their market position in the “Neiman-Marcus light” range and not drift into the “Target plus” range. Tactically that means they can discount sub-brands (Cole-Haan, Coach, etc.) one or two at a time and do more promotion of their private label, a lower cost option for a high quality product, but they can’t go all-in with everyday-low-pricing.

Nordstrom's best strategy is to focus; to hunker down (read: don't expect revenues to increase), and work on strategies and plans to take market share when the recovery begins, which is what they’re doing.

Here are some more examples of what companies are doing taken from Fortune, WSJ Online and www.a-moracle.com, a website we own that is dedicated to marketing and marketing research.

  • Staples recently launched a group of high-quality private label products, such as leather portfolios. This was a channel strategy partially driven by the recession. They “went after customers who would buy those products in a mall setting – and won many of them,” according to CEO Ron Sargent.
  • TD America CEO, Fred Tomczyk apparently likes recession-driven low pricing. He said, “Dislocation drives opportunity. In October we increased our marketing spend. We were able to get more share of voice for the same dollar because ad rates were dropping.”
  • Partner and head of global customer strategy practice at Bain & Co., Rob Markey, made a great point: “Downturns are when the biggest shifts in market share happen. But don’t try to go after different types of customers. The companies that do this well focus on the customers that are at the core of their business.”
  • NASCAR would seem to agree with the Bain approach. In August 2008 they announced that the "Southern 500" would return to the Darlington Raceway in Darlington, South Carolina in May 2009. Most of my hard-core NASCAR obsessed friends are excited about the return to, what they consider, a tradition. The first Southern 500 ran at Darlington in 1950 and was NASCAR’s first and only 500 mile race until the Daytona 500 debuted in 1959.They all seem to know this. Amazing.
  • Christian Dior has decided to go more upscale by unveiling a $2,300 Trente bag as well as a line of Lady Dior bags that start at $1,400. “People are looking for value and asking for quality now more than ever,” says Claudia D’Arpizio, a Bain & Co. partner.
  • Finally, Tiffany has taken another path; with holiday sales down 21% they reduced staff and marketing spending. In addition, for Valentine’s Day they began advertising gifts under $250 on their website (a lower cost channel than retail) to show that luxury can be more affordable. It will be interesting to see if there are any long-term affects on the brand.

We’re not at the bottom yet.

Doug Schust - Tuesday, March 24, 2009
In this entry I’ll share comments from industry insiders taken from recent emails and phone conversations on the industrial segment of our economy. Specifically, I’ve synthesized comments from one CEO, two company presidents, eight vice presidents and Ron Nicely, an economic forecaster.

The most common view is the rate of decline in the industrial segment is finally slowing and the segment will “bottom-out” in July or August. This will be followed by gradual increases in production, factory utilization and sales. The recovery will be so slow that it is likely sales levels in October/November of 2009 will be approximately where they are today, which is down anywhere from 20% to 50% and more, year-to-year. A few pointed to the recent gains in the stock market as confirmation that a recovery is expected in a 6- (to 9-) month time-frame. If you find that disturbing, wait until you read what Ron Nicely is reporting.

Ron, who reports on and forecasts the industrial segment, and metalworking in particular, each month in his Nicely Newsletter is concerned that the future may be more bleak. In this month’s report he wrote, “I looked back at the metalworking data for early 1982…The decline in the GDP at that time was -6.4% in the lowest quarter, compared to -6.2% in GDP in the 4th quarter of 2008. At that time there was a decline in the metalworking data of  -36.4% that occurred in the 16 months before a bottom was reached. If this one [recession] is the same, the bottom will occur late in 2009. From the bottom it took 4 years and 8 months to get back to the total sales that were being recorded before the decline [1982 recession] began. This would point to the 3rd quarter of Calendar 2014 when sales would equal the high point in 2008.”

Yikes!

Economic forecasting is an inexact science so Ron qualified his remarks and offered some advice: “Every recession is different and it is possible this one may be different; however you [manufacturers and distributors] need to plan for this scenario being similar [to 1982], at least to start, and see how it develops. We did not have the financial problems then that we have now, so this recession could be more stubborn before we see a recovery…The next 1 to 2 years will be difficult and working on new products and looking for new markets will be important to your own company’s recovery.”

Some companies are using this time to reorganize and not just trim "fat," but to structure the business around market segments, such as energy or healthcare, rather than around products. Market segmentation can provide a source of differentiation in the marketplace that a product-based structure often lacks.

Steve



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