In this entry I’ll share comments from industry insiders taken from recent emails and phone conversations on the industrial segment of our economy. Specifically, I’ve synthesized comments from one CEO, two company presidents, eight vice presidents and Ron Nicely, an economic forecaster.

The most common view is the rate of decline in the industrial segment is finally slowing and the segment will “bottom-out” in July or August. This will be followed by gradual increases in production, factory utilization and sales. The recovery will be so slow that it is likely sales levels in October/November of 2009 will be approximately where they are today, which is down anywhere from 20% to 50% and more, year-to-year. A few pointed to the recent gains in the stock market as confirmation that a recovery is expected in a 6- (to 9-) month time-frame. If you find that disturbing, wait until you read what Ron Nicely is reporting.

Ron, who reports on and forecasts the industrial segment, and metalworking in particular, each month in his Nicely Newsletter is concerned that the future may be more bleak. In this month’s report he wrote, “I looked back at the metalworking data for early 1982…The decline in the GDP at that time was -6.4% in the lowest quarter, compared to -6.2% in GDP in the 4th quarter of 2008. At that time there was a decline in the metalworking data of  -36.4% that occurred in the 16 months before a bottom was reached. If this one [recession] is the same, the bottom will occur late in 2009. From the bottom it took 4 years and 8 months to get back to the total sales that were being recorded before the decline [1982 recession] began. This would point to the 3rd quarter of Calendar 2014 when sales would equal the high point in 2008.”

Yikes!

Economic forecasting is an inexact science so Ron qualified his remarks and offered some advice: “Every recession is different and it is possible this one may be different; however you [manufacturers and distributors] need to plan for this scenario being similar [to 1982], at least to start, and see how it develops. We did not have the financial problems then that we have now, so this recession could be more stubborn before we see a recovery…The next 1 to 2 years will be difficult and working on new products and looking for new markets will be important to your own company’s recovery.”

Some companies are using this time to reorganize and not just trim "fat," but to structure the business around market segments, such as energy or healthcare, rather than around products. Market segmentation can provide a source of differentiation in the marketplace that a product-based structure often lacks.

Steve

Viral ads are online promotional campaigns that are so cleverly designed that they spread “like a virus,” quickly and massively, amongst the target consumers and users of the product. Viral Marketing is the creation of those ads - marketing messages.

If done correctly, people will forward the ad to all their "friends" and/or start talking, texting, and emailing about the ad. It is essentially a great piece of PR work.

Today “viral” typically comes in the form of an email or video. In the future, I suspect it will be primarily pictures and video, since those are  the mediums pundits predict will dominate the web in the years ahead.

However, before you tattoo your company logo on your forehead, take a wacky picture of yourself with your new iPhone, and email the photo to everyone you know, it is important to know a few of the basic requirements of a good viral ad.

Specifically:
-    There must be a huge fun (new, unique, interesting or sexy) factor
-    Good writing and imagery are critical
-    It should be easy to forward via email and/or posting
-    The act of forwarding it makes the sender appear cool or in-the-know
-    The sender should expect a reply, such as, “That's cool.”
-    It must be blog-worthy
-    People must drive it because people are credible; corporations are not.

Steve

My favorite quote? That's easy.

But first, thanks to all of you who have sent me notes and emails after reading my book, or at least part of the book. I appreciate you taking time out of your busy lives to send me feedback, good and bad, and words of encouragement.

Several of you commented on the generous use of quotations in my book, thirty-eight to be exact. To those of you who've asked me which quote is my favorite, that’s easy, the one below from Anais Nin. She was an accomplished diarist for more than 60 years. She who was born in France in 1903, started writing in her journal at age 11, and died in 1977 in Los Angeles.

And the day came when the risk it took to remain tight in the bud became more painful than the risk it took to blossom.
                                                                                                          —Anais Nin

It’s poignant and contains an important life message. In a world that insists on conformity we all need to stay true to ourselves even if it pisses people off or makes our lives harder because, frankly, we have no better choice.

Steve

P.S.
Another of her quotes is also on my favorites list: Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage.

Many people are describing our current situation as economic winter. It’s a good metaphor and brings up an interesting question, what follows winter? The logical answer seems to be Spring.

So, are you prepared for Spring?

When your customers are ready to start buying again, will you present them with the same old pre-winter company they knew, or worse, a smaller, watered-down version of that company?

What about your employees - your internal customers? Are they prepared for the coming Spring? Do they understand the new company? Are they explaining the brighter future to customers? Or are they hunkered down waiting for the next cutback and telling customers about their worst fears?

Winter doesn’t last forever. Make the investments now to introduce your customers and your employees to a new, more focused, and well-defined company.

Aligned Marketing was created to help client’s produce clear, concise and consistent communication. The purpose of that communication is to improve our client's revenues, as well as their ability to execute.

One of the basic rules of writing is: “Show, don’t tell.” Nowhere is that becoming more applicable than on the Internet.

When Google bought YouTube many of us wondered why such an incredibly profitable company as Google, a company already rich in eyeballs, would buy a company that was losing money. In fact, up to that point YouTube had no clear revenue model. More than one person asked, “YouTube has pretty cool technology, but how are they going to make money?” The answer to that question is starting to reveal itself.

Google has long recognized the trend that more and more people are selecting the Internet over television and print as their preferred source for entertainment and, more recently, their preferred source for news and information. It’s more than a bad economy that is causing newspapers across the country to fold, it’s a behavioral trend brought on by competition from the Internet.

The subtext to this trend is: As a society, we no longer want to read. We’d prefer to have things explained to us and nothing explains anything quite as well as pictures. We are visual creatures, after all, and by definition video is a visual experience.

Back to Google; specifically Google Gaudi. Gaudi stands for Google Audio Indexing. In simple terms, Gaudi uses voice recognition software to locate search words and phrases inside videos, such as Google Video and YouTube, just like Google searches through HTML text looking for words and phrases in websites. The dawn of a new era of search capability has risen.

Most companies have invested in a website. Few have done anything (SEO) to insure that website can easily be found by prospective customers and current customers. That makes no sense to me, but I digress. Those that care about maximizing the return on their web-investment should begin investing in video. Advances in technology have made video more affordable. Stated another way, in today’s world you can buy a lot of technology for a reasonable amount of money and that is what the smart money is doing.

Last Sunday I was creating a presentation in PowerPoint that required narration and I wanted it embedded in the file. I had been assured by a couple IT types that PowerPoint had a narration function that would easily allow me to create the presentation and post it to YouTube for distribution.

The short version to this saga is I spent about 12 hours fiddling around in PowerPoint. The program, like it’s mother, was inflexible, limited and does not want to play nicely with YouTube. I decided to turn off my machine and try again on Monday, when my energy was renewed.

As dawn broke on Monday, I had an epiphany. I decided to see if Apple’s presentation program, Keynote, would work better. No surprise, less than two hours later I had made significant improvements to the presentation and posted it on YouTube, with one-click.

Someday Microsoft's desktop domination will end. That will be a joyous day for all the Marketers who hate crappy products.

My name is Steve Hartkopf. I am the founder and Managing Partner of Aligned Marketing.